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Foreign debt
Definition
IMF defines it as "Gross external debt, at any given time, is the
outstanding amount of those actual current, and not contingent, liabilities that
require payment(s) of principal and/or interest by the debtor at some point(s)
in the future and that are owed to nonresidents by residents of an economy.
In this definition, IMF defines the key elements as follows; (a) Outstanding and
Actual Current Liabilities: For this purpose, the decisive consideration is
whether a creditor owns a claim on the debtor. Here debt liabilities include
arrears of both principal and interest. (b) Principal and Interest: When this
cost is paid periodically, as commonly occurs, it is known as an interest
payment. All other payments of economic value by the debtor to the creditor that
reduce the principal amount outstanding are known as principal payments.
However, the definition of external debt does not distinguish between whether
the payments that are required are principal or interest, or both. Also, the
definition does not specify that the timing of the future payments of principal
and/or interest need be known for a liability to be classified as debt. (c)
Residence: To qualify as external debt, the debt liabilities must be owed by a
resident to a nonresident. Residence is determined by where the debtor and
creditor have their centers of economic interest - typically, where they are
ordinarily located - and not by their nationality. (d) Current and Not
Contingent: Contingent liabilities are not included in the definition of
external debt. These are defined as arrangements under which one or more
conditions must be fulfilled before a financial transaction takes place.
However, from the viewpoint of understanding vulnerability, there is analytical
interest in the potential impact of contingent liabilities on an economy and on
particular institutional sectors, such as government.
Generally external debt is classified into four heads i.e.
(1) public and publicly guaranteed debt, (2) private
non-guaranteed credits, (3) central bank deposits, and (4) loans due to the IMF.
However the exact treatment varies from country to country. For example, while
Egypt maintains this four head classification [2], in India it is classified in
seven heads i.e. (a) multilateral, (b) bilateral, (c) IMF loans, (d) Trade
Credit, (e) Commercial Borrowings, (f) NRI Deposits, and (g) Rupee Debt. (h) NPR
Debt.
External Debt Sustainability
Sustainable debt is the level of debt which allows a debtor country to meet its
current and future debt service obligations in full, without recourse to further
debt relief or rescheduling, avoiding accumulation of arrears, while allowing an
acceptable level of economic growth. (UNCTAD/UNDP, 1996)
External-debt-sustainability analysis is generally conducted in the context of
medium-term scenarios. These scenarios are numerical evaluations that take
account of expectations of the behavior of economic variables and other factors
to determine the conditions under which debt and other indicators would
stabilize at reasonable levels, the major risks to the economy, and the need and
scope for policy adjustment. In these analysis, macroeconomic uncertainties,
such as the outlook for the current account, and policy uncertainties, such as
for fiscal policy, tend to dominate the medium-term outlook. [IMF, Debt- and
Reserve-Related Indicators of External Vulnerability, Policy Paper, 2000]
World Bank and IMF hold that “a country can be said to achieve external debt
sustainability if it can meet its current and future external debt service
obligations in full, without recourse to debt rescheduling or the accumulation
of arrears and without compromising growth.” According to these two
institutions, external debt sustainability can be obtained by a country “by
bringing the net present value (NPV) of external public debt down to about 150
percent of a country’s exports or 250 percent of a country’s revenues.” [3] High
external debt is believed to have harmful effects on an economy.
Indicators of External Debt Sustainability
There are various indicators for determining a sustainable level of external
debt. While each has its own advantage and peculiarity to deal with particular
situations, there is no unanimous opinion amongst economists as to one sole
indicator. These indicators are primarily in the nature of ratios i.e.
comparison between two heads and the relation thereon and thus facilitate the
policy makers in their external debt management exercise. These indicators can
be thought of as measures of the country’s “solvency” in that they consider the
stock of debt at certain time in relation to the country’s ability to generate
resources to repay the outstanding balance.
Examples of debt burden indicators include the (a) debt to GDP ratio, (b)
foreign debt to exports ratio, (c) government debt to current fiscal revenue
ratio etc. This set of indicators also covers the structure of the outstanding
debt including the (d) share of foreign debt, (e) short-term debt, and (f)
confessional debt in the total debt stock.
A second set of indicators focuses on the short-term liquidity requirements of
the country with respect to its debt service obligations. These indicators are
not only useful early-warning signs of debt service problems, but also highlight
the impact of the inter-temporal trade-offs arising from past borrowing
decisions. Examples of liquidity monitoring indicators include the (a) debt
service to GDP ratio, (b) foreign debt service to exports ratio, (c) government
debt service to current fiscal revenue ratio etc. The final indicators are more
forward looking as they point out how the debt burden will evolve over time,
given the current stock of data and average interest rate. The dynamic ratios
show how the debt burden ratios would change in the absence of repayments or new
disbursements, indicating the stability of the debt burden. An example of a
dynamic ratio is the ratio of the average interest rate on outstanding debt to
the growth rate of nominal GDP.
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